Luxon to Canberra: we need you (you might need us too)

Analysis: Christopher Luxon has put into words what he and his foreign minister have been signalling for months: New Zealand needs Australia – and the United States – more than ever.
In his first major foreign policy speech, Luxon painted a bleak picture of the world. He followed this up by putting a values stake in the ground on China, and pointing to Wellington’s deliberate deepening of ties with Australia and other Five Eyes partners.
“Our strategic outlook is deteriorating more rapidly than at any time in our lifetimes,” Luxon told the audience at the prestigious Lowy Institute in Sydney.
“We see tectonic shifts are unfolding in the global distribution of power, economic heft, and strategic influence. Old assumptions are being upended.”
For all its imperfections, Luxon said, the international order had served New Zealand’s and Australia’s interests well.
But that is unlikely to be the case for much longer.
Luxon reiterated what many leaders and foreign policy experts have been saying for years: the era of the rules-based order, governed by multilateral architecture, may be coming to an end.
“The overarching trend is of rules giving way to power,” he said.
But a return to a world where raw power was the primary determinant in advancing states’ interests “would be a harsh world indeed”.
In his speech to a VIP audience, which included New South Wales’ chief justice, the Sydney head for Australia’s foreign ministry, the Australian High Commissioner to New Zealand and New Zealand’s High Commissioner in Australia, Luxon said diplomacy had already yielded to violence in some cases.
Throughout his speech and in the subsequent Q&A, the Prime Minister referred to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine as an example of the worst-case scenario.
He followed that with a warning: “Ukraine could happen in a flashpoint across our Indo-Pacific region as well.” 
New Zealanders sometimes perceived themselves as being “buffered by splendid isolation”, but no-one could escape today’s realities, Luxon said.
When asked about his comments, which implied he believed a conflict comparable to that in Ukraine could flare up in New Zealand’s backyard, he mentioned the Taiwan Strait as an example.
Later, he appeared to walk back his comments, and rejected the idea that he was referring to the potential for China to invade Taiwan.
“I’m acknowledging that we have potential flashpoints and potential conflict in the region … I’ve said that a Ukraine could happen in our region, and we wouldn’t want that to happen, and that’s why we are working incredibly hard around security and our economic interests to make sure that peace and stability and security and prosperity remains in the region.”
These comments come as tensions over Taiwan continue to rise.
In a new paper from Xiamen University, unnamed researchers advised the Chinese Communist Party to establish a “shadow government” ahead of the “intended reunification” of Taiwan.
The paper, which was translated by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the “one country, two systems” rules used for Hong Kong wouldn’t work for Taiwan. Instead, “full integration into the mainland” should be Beijing’s approach, “as soon as possible”.
A foreign policy speech given in another country is usually used to message that country. In this case, Wellington is stating its position to Canberra – and by extension Washington – as a willing and reliable partner.
Luxon used his speech to position New Zealand closer to its traditional partners, in a move many will see as an attempt to counter China’s influence in the region.
There is nothing new in this direction of travel, which began under the previous Labour government, and has ramped up under the Luxon-Peters partnership.
However, the Prime Minister was clearer, and more direct, in his delivery at the Sydney think tank.
His comments left little for foreign policy buffs and the diplomatic corps to interpret.
“We are deliberately deepening our relationships with Australia, as well as other Five Eyes partners,” he said.
This marks Luxon’s third visit to Australia, within six months. Meanwhile, 12 other ministers have popped across the ditch, including Foreign Minister Winston Peters, Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Defence Minister Judith Collins, and Climate Minister Simon Watts.
Luxon said China remained a country of undoubted influence, and New Zealand wanted to try and find solutions to shared challenges like climate change.
“Equally clearly … the difference in values and systems of government mean there are issues on which we cannot and will not agree.”
Luxon repeated the well-worn assurance that these differences were raised both privately and publicly “in a consistent and predictable manner”.
He then referenced the example of his Government publicly attributing a cyber-attack on the Parliamentary computer network to a PRC state-backed entity.
Recent governments have been more forthcoming in calling China’s human rights abuses and attempts at foreign interference.
However, Luxon has built on this practice, with a more direct approach than his predecessors.
But when Lowy Institute director Dr Michael Fullilove asked Luxon what he made of China’s retaliatory actions towards Australia, and what it said about the Asian superpower as an interlocutor, Luxon refused to be drawn on the topic.
“I’m not that interested in the past, frankly. I’m much more interested in the future.” 
The Prime Minister’s first major foreign policy address was delivered from the same stage Peters used six years ago to launch his Pacific Reset, under the Labour-NZ First coalition Government.
While he did not name China in his 2018 speech, the decision to step-up New Zealand’s focus on the Pacific Region coincided with Xi Jinping’s increasingly assertive stance across the Asia-Pacific region. 
Peters spoke about increasing geostrategic competition, at the same time the Asia-Pacific Region was being reframed as the Indo-Pacific.
“We see in 2018 a region challenged by a dizzying array of social and environmental problems, and one attracting an increasing number of external actors and interests,” Peters said at the time.
“So much is changing in the Pacific, and sometimes it is not for the best. Need and temptation often leads to greater risk than prudence would suggest.”
It was the beginning of New Zealand’s public shift towards countering China’s play for power in the region, as it pushed its Belt and Road Initiative, locked small Pacific nations into high-debt loans, and made moves to secure strategic locations with geostrategic importance.
More than six years on, it’s not unusual to hear the New Zealand Government call China out by name. But under the Luxon-Peters pairing, those public statements countering Xi’s rise have become clearer and more frequent.
In an interview with the Financial Times, following the NATO Summit in Washington, Luxon said he would continue to call out China over espionage activities.
“When you believe in values, you actually need to stand up for them,” the Prime Minister said – he echoed similar sentiments in Australia on Thursday.
While Luxon has gone to pains to describe his approach as a reset, it may be better described as a progression or re-energisation.
The coalition government has not significantly shifted its foreign policy, but it has been clearer in its intent to get closer to Australia and the United States.
Meanwhile, Luxon, Peters and Trade Minister Todd McClay have all been racking up some serious mileage, with Peters having visited 30 countries since taking office, and the Prime Minister making a concerted effort to visit a range of Asian countries.
Befitting of a speech that echoes some of Peters’ sentiment in his 2018 Lowy speech, Luxon also spent time talking about the challenges facing the Pacific, and how New Zealand is uniquely placed to help them do that.
The comments on the importance of Pacific Island Forum centrality come less than a fortnight before Luxon will be in Tonga for the PIF leaders’ meeting under a new head.
And as the debate rages at home, on whether or not New Zealand should join Aukus Pillar II (if and when an invite arrives), any opportunity to do so sounds like a long way off.
Luxon referred to Aukus in his speech as a good thing for the region, but reiterated New Zealand’s nuclear-free stance would not change.
That left the possibility to join Pillar II, which is rumoured to be about cyber technology and information sharing.
When asked to elaborate on why Pillar II was appealing, Luxon suggested any clarity around Pillar II was still a long way off.
“In fairness, you know, Pillar II has been thrown around, and actually it has been pretty loosely defined and ethereal at times.” 
Luxon also mentioned Aukus in the context of a mini-lateral strategic grouping.
As superpowers like Russia and China do their best to tear apart the fabric of legacy multilateral arrangements like Nato and the United Nations, countries are looking for another way to get a seat at the table and ensure their trade and security interests are being looked after.
While Australia is New Zealand’s oldest friend and only formal ally, Canberra has surged ahead joining key mini-laterals like The Quad and Aukus.
Mini-laterals have been used in the Asia-Pacific region for more than a decade, but they are now enjoying a golden age, with the emergence of The Quad and Aukus – both groups that New Zealand has been left out of to date.
Luxon points to trade groupings, but one of New Zealand’s first true forays into the world of the increasingly important mini-laterals is the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4). 
Luxon chaired the meeting of the IP4 on the sidelines of the main Nato summit in the United States, last month.
At the time, the group, made up of NZ, Australia, Japan and the Republic of Korea, invited Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky to join their discussions on Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and how this conflict impacts the Indo-Pacific Region.
While this group started within the bounds of Nato, Luxon will likely be doing what he can to hold onto the group, to work with leaders more directly,
The increasingly complex geostrategic environment means Luxon and his foreign ministry won’t be losing sight of Australia’s centrality to New Zealand’s foreign policy.
As the “junior partner”, New Zealand needs to signal to Australia why the partnership is in their best-interests – much the same as Australia needs to do with the US. And Luxon is doing his best to remind Australia of the closeness of the bond, the shared history, and New Zealand’s predictability and reliability in the region.
Luxon wasn’t shy in telling Australia he needed them, in his speech. But he also reminded the Aussies why they needed their Kiwi counterparts.
Ahead of his annual leaders’ meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Friday, Luxon laid out his case: As the systems deteriorate, and a new world order emerges, a well-known, consistent, predictable partner, driven by long-hold values is nothing to be sniffed at.
“Australia is New Zealand’s indispensable ally, partner and friend.  You are more relevant to us than ever as we forge our path in a more contested world.  And, dare I say, we are more relevant to you than ever before, too,” Luxon said.
“The bonds of history, geography, common values, our deep people-to-people links are often captured in a simple phrase – we are family.”
If the Prime Minister was looking to message Canberra – and by extension Washington – with his first major foreign policy speech, then the message was: We need you with us as we face up to this big, bad world. But you probably need us too.